Notes on the Pickering B Refurbishment
November 27, 2025
The Province of Ontario announced its intention to proceed with the refurbishment of the Pickering B nuclear power plant (4 reactors) on November 26th
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1006772/ontario-greenlights-pickering-nuclear-generating-station-refurbishment-to-create-nearly-37000-jobs
The estimated capital cost, at $26.8 billion is more than double the projected capital cost for the Darlington Refurbishment ($12.8 billion). This is substantially higher than previous estimates, reflecting Pickering B’s age, which reached the end of its designed life in 2015.
Based on the announced the capital costs, the electricity costs from a refurbished Pickering B would likely be in the 20 cents+ per kwh range, well above the current mid-peak costs for consumers, and well above the costs of renewables + storage, DERs, or energy productivity/efficiency, and likely too high to be a viable export option to the US. These additional costs will undermine affordability, competitiveness and efforts at decarbonization through electrification, the primary decarbonization option for transportation, space heating and industry.
The refurbishment of Pickering B was assessed by OPG as uneconomic and unnecessary in 2009.
A refurbishment retains a nuclear facility in what is now a densely populated urban area, a location where it is very unlikely a new nuclear facility would now be licenced. There are also longstanding concerns about the geological stability of the Pickering site.
The shutdown and refurbishment almost certainly mean the province will burn even more fossil gas to meet electricity needs, with the implications of additional emissions of GHGs and smog precursors. This is particularly the case given the lack of movement on alternative generation or productivity options, including renewables and DERs.
Maintaining a high nuclear component in the province’s electricity system reduces planning and operational flexibility, particularly as loads become more dynamic, and increases the likelihood of surplus baseload generation and exports at near
-zero or even negative prices.
The situation again strengthens the case for a meaningful external review of the province’s electricity plans in terms of their cost-effectiveness and economic and environmental sustainability.